If Republicans take power, they are likely to fight back. They may be more concerned with draining the revenue department. The easiest way to do this is to limit tuition increases at state universities. De facto tuition caps are already common, but they could become tighter and clearer, especially in the red and purple states. Such policies may be popular with voters, especially during periods of high inflation.

A second reform could limit the ability of public universities to spend the money to hire more administrators, including those working on the so-called DEI problem. Given the fungibility of funds and the ability of managers to modify new positions, such restrictions may not be fully enforceable. Still, many state policies seek to counteract the current shift to the left, which means less autonomy for public universities.

Another possible reform could tie funding for schools and majors to the future earnings of graduates. That could put the humanities at a disadvantage, which has already tended to be one of the more politicized disciplines in modern universities.

Overall, this trend looks like this: Government policy towards universities has been largely predictable for the last several decades. Aid levels are steadily declining in most states as budget pressures mount. This gradual decline may be replaced by more open forms of political warfare. It could also be superseded by drastic budget cuts at universities that don’t advocate a more middle-of-the-road position. Republican leaders may decide that it makes no sense to treat universities as such because few voters view them as politically neutral.

Declan Leary, writing for The American Conservative, said:

The Supreme Court may be involved as well. He has two lawsuits pending on affirmative action in colleges. It’s hard to predict how far-reaching the verdict will be, but it seems unlikely that radical outcomes will be out of the question after Roe v. Wade’s verdict is overturned. Remember, polls show that about 74% of Americans oppose affirmative action.

In short, Republicans can do a lot to increase their popularity, or at least not lose it.

Longer term, future Republican administrations may decide to restructure the entire federal student loan system. How about getting your student loans discharged through normal bankruptcy proceedings? That may sound like a rather banal idea to most voters, and many economists, including Larry Summers, have endorsed it. It will allow some debt relief without having to pay.

Still, the long-term impact of this reform will likely lead to a significant reduction in lending. Most of the students who get admitted don’t actually make it through college, and many of them end up tens of thousands of dollars in debt even though they have little net worth. (By one estimate, the median American under 35 has a net worth of $13,900.) So the incentive to declare bankruptcy can be relatively high. This makes federal student loans a more expensive and unattractive proposition. Private lenders will be similarly cautious. Higher education will probably shrink.

The net effect of the President’s Loan Forgiveness Initiative is an executive order, and thus may not sustain a legislative majority that supports it, although it may be a one-time benefit for students. It doesn’t affect the cost of education. Culture wars over higher education.

The high cost of this policy, and the notoriety surrounding it, may sound the alarm bells needed for higher education. But as someone who works in this field, I am hopeless. Universities have had more than their share of drama in recent years. Biden’s student loan initiative only makes things worse, proving it’s part of his legacy as well.

Bloomberg Opinion Details:

• College tuition is too expensive, but hasn’t really gone up: Matthew Yglesias

• Biden’s student loan plan neglects older borrowers: Alexis Leondis

• Biden’s Debt Relief Plan Worsen American Politics: Clive Crook

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Tyler Cowen is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. George is a professor of economics at Mason University and a contributor to his blog Marginal Revolution. He is co-author of Talent: How to Identify Empowerers, Creatives and Winners Around the World.

More articles like this can be found at bloomberg.com/opinion.