Ahead of what is expected to be the first truly “post-pandemic” holiday season, digital marketing agency NetElixir has released its 2022 holiday ecommerce sales forecast calendar. According to their data projections, total e-commerce sales during the November-December holiday shopping period increased 7% year-on-year compared to last year’s sales data, while total online sales surpassed national retail sales. It can exceed 20% of sales.
“I am more optimistic than other forecasters about upcoming holidays,” says Udayan Bose, Founder and CEO of NetElixir. “My forecast comes from aggregating recent online sales trends, an analysis of key macro expectations that guide the e-commerce landscape, and hunches about consumer behavior gleaned from decades of business. Despite the many challenges ahead, we believe this year will be unique and fulfilling, so now is the time for retailers to plan a change of course and get a head start on the holiday rush. is here to help guide these strategies in any way we can.”
Here are the key insights broken down by week:
- the week of November 13th: With liquidation sales in the months leading up to the holiday season, holiday deals will start even earlier this year.
- the week of November 20th: Big discounts aren’t limited to big hit days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Expect a week-long promotion starting the Monday before Thanksgiving. Retailers need to get creative with category-level promotions and brand storytelling to attract customers to their products.
- the week of November 27th When December 4th: Some major retailers are expected to test creative promotional strategies in the coming weeks, especially with P-MAX campaigns. Midsize and small businesses need to be agile and strategically ready to win the competition.
- the week of December 11th: The BNPL (buy-now-pay-later) model is a key driver of online growth, and we expect this trend to continue, especially as the holiday season approaches. Keep online shoppers clear and up-to-date on shipping and payment options, as inventory issues are likely to persist.
- the week of December 18th: The growing popularity of BOPIS continues to increase the percentage of last-minute online sales, especially before Christmas, on mobile. Online shopping volumes are expected to surge again this week through the 22nd.
- the week of December 25th: Post-Christmas promotions influence ‘Me-Buy’ weeks when more consumers shop for themselves.
Additional insights include, but are not limited to:
- November 20th, November 21st, November 24th, November 25, November 28th, December 4th, December 5th, December 11th, December 12thWhen December 18-22 is the day during the holiday shopping season when online sales are projected to have the highest year-over-year sales volume, with each day forecast to grow over 20% year-over-year.
- Shipping deadlines and product availability will be the major limiting factors this year.
NetElixir has been accurately tracking holiday e-commerce sales forecasts for over a decade. The agency leveraged his LXRInsights, a proprietary customer analytics technology, to track and analyze real-time data for approximately 75 retail customers ranging from small businesses to large corporations. The team then turned the data into predictions using proprietary predictive models. Data collection spans seven e-commerce categories (including apparel, beauty, home furnishings, consumer electronics, etc.), mobile and desktop on website sessions, website orders, AOV, website revenue, first purchase latency Track data by state, wait time for repeat purchases.
Current forecast is subject to change and assumes no additional Amazon Prime Day or other one-day sales events by another major retailer. NetElixir shared full results, data analysis and more in a webinar. The webinar titled Preparing for the Holidays 2022: Predictions for Ecommerce can be viewed here.
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