Joint Base Pearl Harbor – Hickam, Hawaii— The Pentagon is accelerating development of new breakthrough technologies and stepping up exercises with regional partners in preparation for the expected increase in aggressive military activity by China in the South China Sea.

The move is aimed at deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which many experts believe will come by 2027.

“Until maybe a year and a half ago, we didn’t have a consistent presence on a regular basis. [Chinese] Naval forces east of Taiwan. Now they are always there,” said a senior defense official. defense one. Officials said such stunts by China were not just a show of force, but also aimed at exhausting Taiwan’s defense and response capabilities.

“Taiwan’s air force is aviation-related, and the navy is just exhausted by all this adjacent stationing, because Taiwan can’t be left unchallenged,” the U.S. official said. “China has more planes and is much more capable of flying all the time.

China’s steady increase in military exercises around Taiwan is partly due to the August 2022 visit of then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) to Taipei and Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. It was a reaction to increased political exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, including a visit to Taipei. Wen met with current US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Republican, California) in April.

“I would like to say that from the beginning of August to the end of the year, there were about 200 centerline crossings by Chinese vessels into Taiwanese waters,” the senior U.S. official said. “That is, clear and deliberate escalation … as a signaling tool.”

The official expressed concern that China could attempt another bullying naval exercise near Taiwan later this summer in response to continued lobbying by US lawmakers.

“Members travel while Congress is in recess,” the official said. “So it really looks like a deliberate pile-on that was only triggered by the Congress schedule and the August recess.”

In 2021, then-commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, said China could take steps for Taiwan by 2027. By the year, Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered the military to prepare for a possible invasion. The current head of Indopakom, Admiral John Aquilino, at least publicly, neither endorses nor refutes this date.

But an invasion is far from certain, according to officials interviewed. defense oneEspecially if Xi can politically assimilate Taiwan without bloodshed. Still, experts say 2027 looks like the most attractive time for an invasion, based on a variety of factors. Perhaps most importantly, China’s weapons modernization efforts are poised to reach an important maturity point. At that point, about two years before Taiwan completed a similar effort aimed at attempting an invasion too expensive for China.

To more effectively deter a potential Chinese aggression, the Pentagon is accelerating its major Joint All-Area Command and Control (JADC2) effort in the region, and India Pakom is increasing the number and scope of its exercises, We are working to attract more partners. Present a broad united front against Chinese aggression.

Additionally, the U.S. Air Force is in the midst of its largest ever maneuver exercise in the Pacific, training how to move troops and supplies over vast areas during a war with China.

Military leaders often talk about JADC2, where large amounts of data flow to artificially intelligent agents that will allow commanders to identify targets and deploy them on the battlefield with the best weapons in a much shorter time. Let me explain in terms of the vision of the late decade. It doesn’t matter if the weapon is Navy, Army or Air Force, manned jet, drone or missile battery.

But Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, who is visiting military and defense officials in Hawaii this week, dismissed the idea that JADC2 is a future endpoint.

“Some people talk about JADC2 as if it’s a distant story and not something we’re making progress on a daily basis,” she says.

Hicks has already begun a series of efforts to significantly speed up real-world JADC2-enabled technology on the battlefield. One of his efforts, the Rapid Defense Experimental Reserve (RDER), uses reserves under the control of the Undersecretary (which in the current budget he We are enhancing new technology related to the military.

These early technology samples include the ability to detect and emulate the radio and electronic signatures of various ships, planes, etc., and to convince adversaries to commit scarce resources to investigate phantom jets and tanks. Includes combat kit.Another early RDER prototype of his available exclusively defense one It allows telecom operators to transmit data over insecure IT networks, while China, even a friendly nation of the United States, is increasing its share of a key piece of telecommunications infrastructure. Therefore, it is of great concern in the wider region.

Hicks said efforts like RDER are essential to bring about joint warfare across all domains as quickly as possible.

A second senior defense official outlined a number of key missions undertaken by the RDER, including integrated air and missile defense, surface warfare, distributed resupply, long-range fire under hostile conditions, and logistics.

INDOPACOM also wants to accelerate key technical areas to conduct more exercises with the service sector and partner countries. One of his efforts is a new mission his partner environment, envisioned as a sort of virtual destination where the Indopakom commander can more quickly use data from all armies and allies such as the Philippines.a defense official who spoke to defense one Indopakom said it plans to conduct its first capability demonstration with Japan in September. Demonstrations with Australia would soon follow.

Another initiative, the Pacific Multi-Domain Training and Experimental Capability, will significantly increase the number of virtual exercises that Indopakom can conduct, allowing a wider variety of players to virtually participate in actual wargames. For example, a ship’s crew can practice how to respond to a particular scenario with other Air, Land, Navy, and Space Forces without physically moving the ship.

“Much of what we spend time here is on the issue of decision-making superiority: how to deliver information quickly and at scale to effect change on the battlefield. If you’re in Indopakom, you might have a problem there, there’s a certain way you want to manage your theater visualization and we want to be able to do that,” Hicks said.

While the U.S. pushes forward with these technologies, partners also want to play a role, especially in scheduling stronger joint exercises to counter China’s illegal fishing and bullying by the China Coast Guard, officials said. they said.

“Now they are coming to us,” the military official said.