What animals could be extinct by 2050?
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There have been five mass extinctions in Earth’s history, and many experts have issued alarms. A sixth mass extinction may already be underway As a result of human activity since the Age of Discovery. Some scientists Almost 40% of seeds (opens in new tab) Organisms currently living on our planet could become extinct as early as 2050.
But is this just the worst case scenario? earthspecies can occur?
Related: Could climate change wipe out humans?
increase in death toll
A sixth mass extinction is definitely plausible, said Nick Lawrence, director of the Otago Institute of Paleogenetics and senior lecturer in antiquity. DNA in the Department of Zoology, University of Otago, New Zealand.
“I think it’s pretty likely,” Lawrence told Live Science in an email. bottlenecks, may go through local extinctions and become functionally extinct, the current threat of extinction may not have reached the height of the Big Five, but to stop it If you don’t do anything, you’re definitely on track.”
According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Red List of Threatened Species (opens in new tab)about 41,000 species — nearly a third of all species assessed — are currently threatened with extinction.
Sumatran orangutan (Pongo Avery), Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis), Sumatra elephant (Elephas maximus sumatranus), black rhinoceros (Dikelos Bicornis), Hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata)Sunda tiger (Panthera Tigris Sondaika) and Cross River Gorilla (gorilla gorilla dieri) — classified as “endangered” by both the IUCN and the International Union for Conservation of Nature.This means that it is highly endangered in the wild. World Wildlife Fund (opens in new tab) (WWF).
The IUCN describes it as endangered. (opens in new tab) “categories containing species at very high risk of extinction as a result of rapid population declines of more than 80% to 90% over the last decade (or three generations), current populations of less than 50 individuals, or other factor.”
Many of these species are so severely threatened that they may not survive until 2050.focoena sinus), the porpoise species, considered the rarest marine mammal in the world, has been reduced to just 10 individuals. According to WWF (opens in new tab).
There are countless lesser-known species at risk.2019 review published in the journal biological conservation (opens in new tab) Finding that more than 40% of insect species are currently threatened with extinction, researchers urged “more sustainable and ecologically-based practices to slow or reverse current trends.” He said it should be fully adopted. Reduce insect populations and protect the important ecosystem services they provide. ”
Grasshopper with a white tip (Chorthippus acroleucus), Southern Alpine Bush Cricket (Anoconotus apeninigenus), Swanepoel’s Blue Butterfly (Lepidochrysops swampoeri), Franklin’s bumblebee (bombas franklini) and the Seychelles wingless groundhopper (Procytettix fusiformis).
Related: Which species did humans first drive to extinction?
The same dire prediction of rapid decline exists for nearly all life on Earth. According to a 2018 report (opens in new tab) According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s coral reef Even if global warming is limited to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), they could be extinct by 2050. Recent IPCC (opens in new tab) But the report goes even further, finding that if global temperatures rise by 1.5°C by the early 2030s, “99% of the world’s coral reefs could experience frequent and irreversible heatwaves.” suggesting.
According to a 2022 report published in the journal Nature (opens in new tab)a report published by the journal in 2016, while two in five (40.7%) amphibians are currently threatened with extinction. biology letter (opens in new tab) states that by 2050, 35% of frogs in the Wet Tropics of Queensland, Australia, “may be threatened with extinction.” In fact, amphibian decline could be even more pronounced. Scientists admit there are many amphibians that they struggle to gather detailed information about, and these species are classified as data deficient (DD). According to a report published in the journal in 2022 communication biology, (opens in new tab) “85% of DD amphibians are potentially endangered, as are more than half of DD species in many other taxa, such as mammals and reptiles.”
Determining the exact number of species likely to become extinct by 2050 is therefore very difficult, mainly because the scale of extinction has not yet been established. Furthermore, it is almost impossible to identify all endangered organisms, as it is not known how many species currently exist.
Part of the reason is that “taxonomy, the science of naming biodiversity, is so underfunded,” Lawrence said. “If you can’t name biodiversity (or if you can’t name it fast enough before it goes extinct), you can’t determine how many species will go extinct.”
Extinction happens naturally, but— Over 99% of all species (opens in new tab) Human activity can dramatically accelerate the rate of species extinction. This is a familiar idea for New Zealander Lawrence.
“Island ecosystems are a perfect example to illustrate this,” he said. “They are isolated and often contain high levels of endemism (that is, endemic wildlife).” species, and about 80 species of birds have been lost, Lawrence said.
Related: How long do most species survive before going extinct?
Given the time, many species can adapt to climate change and changes in their natural environment.2021 study in the journal Ecology and evolutionary trends (opens in new tab) Some animals were found to be ‘shifting morphology’ to cope better climate change, some birds seem to be the most adaptable. Studies show that several species of Australian parrots have evolved over the past 150 years to increase their beak size and better regulate internal body temperature.
But as human activity accelerates climate change and destroys habitats, some of the most vulnerable species may bear the brunt and become unable to adapt.
What can you do?
With so many species now on the brink of extinction, is there anything we can do to prevent the worst-case scenario?
For one thing, “the conflict between short-term political interests and long-term funding for conservation initiatives needs to be resolved,” Lawrence said. Many of them are only surviving on intensive conservation management, and the situation will change dramatically as governments, public will and resources are eroded.”
Of course, there are many organizations, researchers and projects dedicated to slowing or stopping human-related climate change. Climb Works (opens in new tab)The Swiss-based company is a pioneer in the field of carbon dioxide air capture technology and aims to build a series of facilities that can permanently remove CO2 from the air. was established in
Elsewhere, Project drawdown (opens in new tab)is a non-profit organization founded in 2014 that aims to connect professionals around the world to help propose and test concepts for stopping. greenhouse gas We’ll see them eventually decline while Bill Gates backs them up Stratospheric control perturbation experiment (opens in new tab) We are currently assessing the feasibility of spraying non-toxic calcium carbonate (CaCO3) dust into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and thereby offset (or significantly reduce) the effects of global warming. .
In the meantime, Lawrence said, to know the future of the planet, we need to look to the past.
“To save the biodiversity we leave behind, we need to know how it has responded to past and present climate change and human impacts, supported by evidence-based conservation management strategies. We need to be able to predict how they will react in the future,” he said. .
In short, more research and effort is needed before it’s too late.
Originally published in Live Science.
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