Ayatollah Khamenei made his first public appearance in two weeks for a religious ceremony broadcast on Iranian state television on September 17.

The appearance followed rumors that Ayatollah Khamenei was suffering from ill health, most notably Iran’s supreme leader, who “had been unable to attend all meetings and public appearances last week after falling seriously ill.” He has canceled his appearance on .

Khamenei, 83, has had serious health problems in the past, including when he was treated for prostate cancer in 2014.

The position of Supreme Leader is for life, and Ayatollah Khamenei’s health problems once again raise questions about eventual succession. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the only time Iran’s top office has changed is when Ayatollah Homenei died in 1989.

Jonathan Piron, a historian specializing in Iran at the Brussels think-tank Etopia, said: “The question now is how to frame the political situation to ensure the best interests of the regime and the stability of the Islamic Republic. ‘ said.

behind-the-scenes consultation

The Council of Experts, a group of 88 Islamic scholars responsible for many of the Islamic Republic’s leadership issues, is also responsible for electing and, if necessary, removing Iran’s supreme leader. Experts are elected by universal suffrage, but all candidates must be approved by the Supervisory Council, whose members are appointed by the Supreme Leader.

“The expert panel is made up of a stronger group of people than before,” Piron said. Now 95-year-old hardliner Ayatollah Ahmad he is led by Giannati.

“The role of supreme leader is of course a highly political one, as is the choice of the next person to assume that role,” Piron said. At the top of Iran’s power structure, this cleric stands above the country’s president.

As with this formal decision-making process, behind the scenes, other actors will have a say in choosing the next Supreme Leader. “There will undoubtedly be talks with the Revolutionary Guard, which controls much of Iran’s security apparatus and economy.”

Favorite is Ebrahim Raishi

As things stand, there are “many indications that everything is ready for Ebrahim Raisi,” Piron said. The current president has Ayatollah Khamenei’s trust and “already enjoys access to all the different power bases.”

In fact, many analysts saw Raisi’s election as president in 2021 as a stepping stone to supreme leadership. Raisi has held all top positions, from the head of Imam Reza Shrine Foundation’s vast financial affairs to the Attorney General, which he held before becoming president.

It is also worth noting that when Khamenei was elected Supreme Leader in 1989, he was himself president.

Nonetheless, some argue that Raishi’s time as president could taint him. I need to be successful as president,” said Piron. “But he faces major challenges in the form of the economic crisis and the surge in protests.”

Mojtaba Khamenei, Man of Shadows

A second name has been mentioned for several years as a potential successor. Mojtaba Khamenei is none other than the son of the current Supreme Leader. At 53, he looks very unremarkable, but he’s not that powerful in that respect.

Mojtaba Khamenei has an extensive personal network. That is, he personally knows all of the major commanders of the Revolutionary Guard. He plays a “core role” in the Iranian system, Piron said. bait, office of the Supreme Leader. As advisors to the Supreme Leader, bait It will serve as a parallel body to Iran’s other states, with its own administration aimed at verifying decisions made at various levels of power in line with Ayatollah Khamenei’s wishes.

” baitThere is very little transparency in what we do, and it is based on a lot of power plays and clientism,” said Piron. “Mojtaba Khamenei was never elected. He was appointed to this position by his father, who wanted to be surrounded by very loyal people. Because of that, we see him as a corrupt figure who is profiting from the position of Supreme Leader.”

In a country where corruption is commonplace, resenting those suffering from a deep economic crisis, Mojtaba Khamenei is the subject of a particular hatred of the “sons” of those in power, who are often called upon to say “” to him. I am giving you a nickname.Aghazadeh” (meaning “son of a noble lord”).

Mojtaba Khamenei’s name has also been chanted at several demonstrations against the government. Basij – Militia made up of volunteers who work for the Supreme Leader are sometimes responsible for suppressing student demonstrations or hunting down women who mistakenly wear the mandatory veil.

Finally, some clergy question the extent of Mojtaba Khamenei’s expertise in theology.Until now, he has only held the title Hoja Treslam (intermediate rank of Shia clergy). However, Iran’s constitution states that before becoming the supreme leader, Ayatollah Marjah (a title given to the highest Shia authority) was the head of a seminary and had many years of practical experience in religious education.

keep in power

These eligibility requirements could complicate the path for Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father. “The supreme leader must defend himself against various conflicts between factions and play the role of a peacemaker,” Piron said, with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressing conflicts between the various hardliners. He added that he succeeded. However, some believe that Mojtaba Khamenei is not “neutral enough”.

So the current Supreme Leader’s son could find a role elsewhere. Mojtaba Khamenei is in the shadows because of the networks he has to ensure that the next supreme leader remains a hardliner like his father. I can’t imagine being asked to take on that role,” Piron argued.

In any case, Piron said, “if the regime wants to survive, it is almost certain that there is a plan, or at least a scenario, very closely researched behind the scenes to avoid a chaotic situation.” Leave it as “Very Opaque” for now.

This article is a translation of the original French.